Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
2024 has been a wild ride with lots of development inside and outside AI.
What are your predictions for this coming year?
2024 has been a wild ride with lots of development inside and outside AI.
What are your predictions for this coming year?
-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border.
-Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy.
-Another CEO is shot.
-Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k.
-US grocery prices are higher than ever.
-Pierre Poilievre is the new Prime Minister of Canada and holds a majority.
-EVs continue to grow market share at a linear rate in North America.
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Previous years:
2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 (the rest of this list is copied from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38779963)
2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236
2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
2017: none?
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2013: none?
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
There's a second 2024 thread here:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465
Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely.
Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.
> reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely.
I think that is true of most predictions.
Crazy how wrong people were in the top 2024 comments.
Indeed someone predicted vision pro will be wildly popular.
There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc..
Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids.
On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significantly more negative effects.
I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on.
If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies.
But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global identity system that is somehow inextricably linked to your real-life persona. Everything you do online is linked to who you are. And that's VERY dystopian and doesn't (yet) exist to my knowledge.
There's a parent-driven approach I'm hearing about more and more.
Parents in a school get together and agree on smartphone accessibility. For example "no smart phone till high school, dumb Nokia for comms if required".
This is hyper-local but works well because there's no peer pressure- nobody has one etc.
The other effective approach in play is "no screens in private areas" - ie no screens in bedrooms and bathrooms. This also has very beneficial outcomes on kids, and seems to be gathering steam.
I think govt type bans are easily circumvented, and basically useless. But parental rules, especially if common in the child's social circle, are proving to be a good starting point.
Maybe I was just a bad kid, but if my parents had done something like this, my friends and I would have pooled our cash and bought a used phone.
That wouldn't invalidate this and it would still be better, but just FYI. Any parent-driven solution would be seen as the parents being ridiculous and unfair by the kids, at least at first.
Sounds like a business opportunity. Make a token (Bluetooth low energy token?) that parents can place in the location where devices can be used. Either have it baked into the hardware's software (so Apple would need to support it) or sell a Wifi router that only allows the 'screen' devices to connect to wifi when the token senses the device (which would make it work for any device with wifi and Bluetooth token's ranges).
Airbnb has a similar kind of verification (which makes a lot of sense in their business). It's a pain but it would obviously not be hard to adapt it to Facebook. But as for what to do for existing accounts? That's where it gets hard. It would probably cut down on spam too though. But yeah the privacy issues are a huge problem.
You’ll be asked to log in into a government-run account, which will pinky promise not to store who accessed what.
It'll be your mandatory X account, the one you'll need to do things like contact the DMV, because hey, can't have government efficiency without grift!
Quite unfortunately imo Google is full steam ahead building the Digital Credentials API, a standard way to have the browser present verifiable identification. Paving the way for the most ghastly intrusion of governments onto the internet; what a horrible thing to do to the internet!
> allows websites to selectively request verifiable information about the user through digital credentials such as a driver's license or a national identification card stored in a digital wallet.
https://developer.chrome.com/blog/digital-credentials-api-or...
* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage
* We'll see the worlds first trillionaire
* Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025
* Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music)
* Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video.
* LLMs will continue to improve substantially, being able to solve more and more complex tasks, like the Putnam exam and others. Research will continue to try and integrate LLMs into a toolchain to improve performance
* LLMs and other generative AI tasks will continue to become more and more accessible ($2.5k for a machine able to do fairly advanced training?)
* The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k
* Twitter and Facebook will still be around, Bluesky will be no more, Mastodon will continue to be niche
* All the above will be used by people to invent and discover weird, wonderful and horrible things that I can't even imagine.
agreed on the uptick in generative AI for music but I think it will just start to replace regular music on the major streamers rather than crop up in a new beskpoke platform. it's already happening: https://harpers.org/archive/2025/01/the-ghosts-in-the-machin...
banger.
on real life image and video intelligence though i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset here given they have google images and youtube.
on proprietary general intelligence ai i think openai and anthropic will keep their lead, while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity.
something to keep eye on though is china. have you guys seen their recent open source models? very impressive. looking at it, it seems like a head to head battle between USA and China. Europe seems heavily distracted with its regulations and politics.
> I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music)
goddamn that would be interesting. it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo etc which is prone to political and non-political influences and slow-downs in production.
> Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video.
i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too. back then we used manual instruments and talented voice actors for voice, these days you could (possibly) produce similar results if you're skilled enough to precisely describe it to the ai you are directing / working with.
> The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k
huge bet on this too, the brains are getting better and for sure yc's request for startup will eventually have a section dedicated for the body and limb part targetting different industries.
> ... i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset ...
I think there's plenty of data for people to train substantial models, either drawing directly from the public domain or scraping content. The cost of compute and disk space will continue to drop exponentially fueling the ability of small businesses and amateurs.
Compute is still following Moore's law, more or less, when you allow for GPUs. Hard drives are relatively on the same path, with maybe a price halving every 3 years or so.
> ... while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity.
Meta's offering is not open source. I agree that all the big players will make substantial moves in this space but I'm much more interested in the niche models that are actually libre/free/open source. I suspect FOSS will eventually eat all the big players lunch but I don't have a good read on it (nor do I know anything about China's OSS models).
> it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo ...
It sounds like a "Black Mirror" episode but I can't wait (and I don't think it'll be as bad as "Black Mirror").
> i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too ...
My read on this is that we're in the "experimental art house" phase of this type of generative AI. So many people create weird things, experimenting with the technology but ultimately having low expectations in terms of what gets produced.
Sometime soon (1-2+ years?) my guess is we'll see finer control with someone, either an actor, director, etc. that can provide dialogue, facial expression and body language with minimal setup, a camera or voice recording, say, that can make or refine avatar/agent performance. I would guess this would be available to specialized visual graphics shops but will eventually bleed out so that amateurs have access. I think we might be seeing this available already.
Eventually, we'll have "make what I want", but I would imagine that's 5-10+ years away.
I think if you count animation we’re probably real close going from comic book series to animated feature.
I think you’d need an almighty market rally for some of these. For the first trillionaire we’d need to see Tesla double and the market would need to be going bananas for Bitcoin to 2x.
Remember 2024 has been a monster year in the markets and they just indicated they are slowing down the rate cuts.
I know right , I think he might be too bullish on bitcoin for it to double , though I may be wrong but it just feels like there would be swings because I still believe that there is no use of bitcoin , Its just that its the one which started these coins and there could be better one for use cases , maybe like IDK monero for real anonymous transactions , but even then these are more of a sidekick thing which I don't think I would ever use but I still like the idea of monero , I really really stay away from crypto.
I like index funds so much , that everything else feels a time / effort waste even though I am aspiring to be a programmer , maybe that's partially why I don't see much reason in crypto.
I just think of index funding 80% + bonds 20% or maybe 100% index fund into my own country index ,and maybe having some backup money in need , probably in a liquid fixed deposit or having multiple bank accounts and giving them all the maximum amount of money which is guaranteed to be given to me if a bank fails by the govt. , probably 10k$ is enough in my country or maybe I am still over estimating.
>I like index funds so much , that everything else feels a time / effort waste even though I am aspiring to be a programmer , maybe that's partially why I don't see much reason in crypto.
Crypto is the future of money and finance. If you are aspiring to become a programmer you should internalize this and get in.
> Crypto is the future of money and finance.
Why ?
Crypto is the digital version of the old commodity money (whose value comes from a commodity of which it is made).
Turns out it was absolutely impractical because people rarely want to be physically responsible for their own estate.
I neither see crypto disappear anytime soon and we may see innovative usage. It can probably make sense in unstable economic environments. But everywhere else, you’ll want your estate not being accessible to burglars, you’ll want your big transactions to be legally secured, you’ll want your bank to be able to reverse things and you’ll want to not let your money sleep.
Also, unless governments start accepting crypto for paying taxes, you’ll have a hard time buying anything in daily shops.
Musk's net worth was $137B in 2022, $270B in 2023 and now estimated to be $400B. $1T is a bit of an extravagant prediction but it's within the realm of possibility. And it might not be him.
Bitcoin was around $43k at the end of 2023 now at approximately $100k.
Augustus Caesar was a trillionaire apparently (in todays money)
Jakob Fugger
* Bitcoin is on a trajectory to reach 200k and it will if we get a strong bull season. However the elephant in the room is the House of Cards that is the US financial system. It appears primed to go poof!
* Solar and LLM's will bloom.
Unsustainable public debt. $50 trillion in debt maturity must be rolled over mid 2025. Something must give
Currently the US has 36T in dept [1]. Where are you getting this number?
[1] https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/natio...
* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons)
* LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and exciting again and not the delight of both Wall Street and the ‘shoeshine boy’.
* Cloud egress costs will be heavily scrutinized and competed upon as transferring data no longer becomes a competitive advantage.
* Apple or someone like Apple will take advantage of cratering storage/compute costs by moving things off cloud to a locally owned ‘box’ that pairs with a new dumb-client/thin phone (backups, massive storage, running some compute on this box, sharing/storing ‘family’ stuff, streaming games or movies etc) also accessible via a reverse proxy (vpn) from anywhere.
* A combo of aibo/roomba/ring like device that goes about or rolls around your house and does things for you… kinda real life flubber.
* Selling users’ data goes out of fashion (goog/meta) as new companies use privacy as a competitive advantage to sell ads.
* Finally games actually have AI that doesn’t suck - a new class of AI games that would challenge and delight humans like never before.
Many predictions here are about social media. My prediction is that the first amendment rights they've won themselves are going to bite them in 2025.
The first ruling has already happened: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/t...
What this ruling means is that the algorithm is a expression of the first amendment from the platform itself. If the algorithm does harmful things it causes first party liability.
My prediction is that the administration will not do much to the social media giants but class action lawsuits will.
Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.
haha this is gonna be an interesting one for sure.
it's crazy how us humans yearn for magic pills for the highs and the lows just to get ourselves in a healthy baseline
and as bryan johnson's experiments look like, it all comes down to our consistency in eating healthy, exercising regularly, and resting enough - those three alone will net you better health than most people - and it's hard to get into habit of doing those since we all got distractions around us.
+1 for mentioning Bryan Johnson
Very cool prediction, but is there anything like this actually coming down the pipe?
Do GLP-1 already do this, to some extent?
I've heard many reports of GLP-1 reducing addiction behavior, but more like alcohol and gambling. Never heard anyone reporting on social media reduction. IMHO it looks like it should, I just haven't seen any data / anecdotes.
Antipsychotic medicines already are dopamine antagonists, but they lead to substantial weight gain, and they hurt motivation.
These already exist, they’re called CNS stimulants.
Sounds like they're describing the opposite of CNS stimulants though. People take meth and coke and go on se, gambling binges. Something that moderates and manages dopamine in a way that breaks the hold gambling and social media has on people's brains would be very different. Something that dulls the retative mini-bursts of dopamine hits you get with every click and scroll.
> People take meth and coke and go on se, gambling binges. Something that moderates and manages dopamine in a way that breaks the hold gambling and social media has on people's brains would be very different.
Simplifying a lot here, but people with ADHD are statistically more likely to exhibit addictive behaviours because the addiction provides dopamine that their brain otherwise has trouble getting. Treatment with prescribed CNS stimulants is very effective at preventing those behaviours because the brain no longer has to engage in the addictive behaviours to obtain sufficient dopamine.
Here’s one study where patients reported significantly lower rates of alcohol and drug use over at least a one year period.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23264367/
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I predict that I will finally finish making that bird feeder camera that I've been wanting to make for my wife. I've got all the parts for it, I just need to figure out how to put them together and write some code to take a picture of a bird. Can't be too hard, right?
Sounds like a great project for learning.
However, just FYI, this $25 2K cam (PCMag recommended) can do that sorta (it has motion/pet detection) and more. It also has excellent night vision. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CH45HPZT/
I was like, a $25 camera can't be this good. But I tried it out and it's actually really good.
It’d be easier if you’d be OK with a picture of a bird or picture of a squirrel ;)
Good luck, sounds like a fun project.
Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.
https://theonion.com/fuck-everything-were-doing-five-blades-...
"The 8th blade sends an electronic pulse to the center of the brain, which destroys the part of the brain responsible for hair growth and 4 other nonessential functions"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjAZnGeBcgg
I don't care if they have 100 lights, I just want us to go back to the soft yellow bulbs, instead of whatever we use now that pierces my retinas.
There should be a standard regulation on automakers to provide only yellow light bulbs and limits on lumens. Also, should be law to enforce it is followed and not modified.
Honestly, I think the headlight "bars" like on the Rivian R1T or Cybertruck is going to be the standard going forward. It gives a better driving experience (to the driver, way worse for the other drivers...)
Some societies optimize for the individual. If 8 lights is better for me then I get 8 lights. The experience gor other drivers us a "them" problem not a "me" problem.
Other societies optimize for public good. It's less about "individual freedom" and more about "what world do we want to live in".
(I'm not talking about govt here as much as just the way people consider their own choices. And yes, there are as*oles in all societies.)
When entrenched in one society model though, it can be hard to understand that other models exist (much less than they could suit you better.)
But it's very much a "you" problem if someone gets dazzled by your excessively bright and poorly aimed headlights and then crashes into you at high speed.
It's a weird situation here in the UK. We have newer vehicles sold with the over the top lights that were factory fitted that can legally be driven on our roads. Meanwhile relatively old but still useful vehicles with underpowered lights from a decade or longer ago often can't update those lights even though better replacement parts are available. Our regulations are obscure and antiquated and mean the vehicle would potentially fail its mandatory annual testing because the replacements don't have the right regulatory mark - so the vehicle would no longer be legal to drive on the road even though its lights would be significantly better and safer than what it originally had but not the crazy ones some new cars arrive with.
> way worse for the other drivers
Light bars selectively disabling some LED segments (as in not blinding other drivers) are already a thing, but... they're not allowed in the US. If the regulation around it comes closer to the EU one, everyone will be better off.
1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job.
2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code.
3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid.
Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...
In case you haven't seen this one yet:
Title: "RouteLLM: Learning to Route LLMs with Preference Data"
Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive capabilities across a wide range of tasks, yet the choice of which model to use often involves a trade-off between performance and cost. More powerful models, though effective, come with higher expenses, while less capable models are more cost-effective. To address this dilemma, we propose several efficient router models that dynamically select between a stronger and a weaker LLM during inference, aiming to optimize the balance between cost and response quality. We develop a training framework for these routers leveraging human preference data and data augmentation techniques to enhance performance. Our evaluation on widely-recognized benchmarks shows that our approach significantly reduces costs—by over 2 times in certain cases—without compromising the quality of responses. Interestingly, our router models also demonstrate significant transfer learning capabilities, maintaining their performance even when the strong and weak models are changed at test time. This highlights the potential of these routers to provide a cost-effective yet high-performance solution for deploying LLMs.
Link: https://arxiv.org/html/2406.18665v1
When all knowledge workers and creatives in the US are out of jobs in 2 years because of AI, those trade jobs aren't going to pay well because no one's going to have any money to pay for any work. No new houses being built, no expensive kitchen remodels, etc.
There's more to it than coders losing their jobs. For the last 40+ years, kids have been encouraged to go to college over trade schools. We now have a shortage of professional tradespeople. Desk jobs are easy to outsource and they are now vulnerable to AI. Even if they, plumbers and such, are not the best-paid jobs they will continue to be needed in our society as long as we have people.
Do you know just recently there was no internet or computers and there were still high paying jobs for smart people?
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> 3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid.
What signals are there for this?
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizatio...
That transcript for a podcast or whatever states there is demand, not a signal that there is a trend toward significantly higher wages or that employment is growing.
There are very different business constraints for hiring software developers vs all skilled tradespeople.
I’ve been trying to get a few trades to my house and it’s a nightmare. Nobody wants to turn up or quote, and when they do they just throw out a silly high figure. It has to already be a better option for someone who is aiming for a reasonably good salary.
small window for ai workflow and ai agent startups for quick cash and grab as large corporations move slow in this field
- (90%) US accelerated inflation
- (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y
- (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry
- (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025
- (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure
- (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security
Introduction of more consumer hardware that resemble industrial hardware (crazy expensive, crazy features or quality or driven by semi-industrial requirements).
Non-anthropomorphic generic AI models.
Impact of war on prices of all kinds of stuff everywhere will become more evident.
A neighbor just got laid off from Adobe, ran huge AI projects there. PM.
Program/Project Manager roles go to zero.
Trad dev and design roles go to zero.
Those roles go to those who also code/design/sell/get viral/make videos/write tutorials/devrel/run communities/answer customer support.
It used to be "do designers learn to code" or "do coders learn to design?
now it's learn ALL those things, fast, with AI, or hang out in the tendie loin.
it's dog eat dog and no one's safe
Predictions from 2008:
National Intelligence Council/Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends 2025
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%2...
Thank you for this link! Interesting read. Looking into predictions regarding climate change is interesting. Especially on page 46 (pdf page 66), the section titled "Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World".
> We believe the most likely occurrence by 2025 is a technological breakthrough that will provide an alternative to oil and natural gas, but implementation will lag because of the necessary infrastructure costs and need for longer replacement time. However, whether the breakthrough occurs within the 2025 time frame or later, the geopolitical implications of a shift away from oil and natural gas will be immense.
I wonder if solar's dirt-cheap cost would be considered a "breakthrough". Interesting breakdown on how major OPEC countries will be affected by such a "breakthrough". Great read!
Edit: This prediction is wild also:
(Page 62, pdf page 83)
> A Non-nuclear Korea?
> We see a unified Korea as likely by 2025—if not as a unitary state, then in some form of North-South confederation. While diplomacy working to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program continues, the final disposition of the North’s nuclear infrastructure and capabilities at the time of reunification remain uncertain. A new, reunified Korea struggling with the large financial burden of reconstruction will, however, be more likely to find international acceptance and economic assistance by ensuring the denuclearization of the Peninsula, perhaps in a manner similar to what occurred in Ukraine post-1991. A loosely confederated Korea might complicate denuclearization efforts. Other strategic consequences are likely to flow from Korean unification, including prospects for new levels of major power cooperation to manage new and enduring challenges, such as denuclearization, demilitarization, refugee flows, and financing reconstruction.
Edit 2:
(Page 75, pdf page 95)
> Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic
> Experts consider highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1, to be likely candidates for such a transformation, but other pathogens—such as the SARS coronavirus or other influenza strains—also have this potential.
...
> If a pandemic disease emerges, it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia, where human populations live in close proximity to livestock. Unregulated animal husbandry practices could allow a zoonotic disease such as H5N1 to circulate in livestock populations—increasing the opportunity for mutation into a strain with pandemic potential. To propagate effectively, a disease would have to be transmitted to areas of higher population density
> Outside the US, critical infrastructure degradation and economic loss on a global scale would result as approximately a third of the worldwide population became ill and hundreds of millions died.
At least we didn't get hundreds of millions dead. That's pretty grim.
The number of programming jobs on earth doubles. The NASDAQ doubles. A cultural renaissance occurs that foundationally defines the next 2 decades. George RR Martin releases The Winds of Winter.
All this in 2025? Also GRRM is done releasing anything
Hilarious that the TWOW is the least likely of your bunch.
Along with "The Doors of Stone" from Patrick Rothfuss
Forget about 2025. I predict that, despite being a highly valued member of my organization and despite my company making money hand over fist, I will not get a holiday bonus this year.
"Best year ever!" "Sorry, we can't do raises this year."
Who is getting all the money?
The "job creators"
Maybe you'll get a subscription to the jelly of the month club. It's the gift that keeps on giving
Dont cry about it. Just switch companies. If you are high value it should be easy.
Someone here will enter 2024 on a form that requires the date.
Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public.
ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.
I'll bandwagon on chat.com getting 10% or higher marketshare. Look back at Google search's 800 number; https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/12/google-kills-sms-search/ (the only article I could find). We're at that stage of chat.com going mainstream. Already chat.com is a better experience for finding local shops and restaurants.
ChatGPT voice mode was surgically amazing while driving. I had a personal assistant refining criteria to find the perfect shop to find the gift I wanted that was open and on my way to my destination.
I don't think there is a moat for search given the power of AI tools.
Today I learned chat.com redirects to chatgpt.com
I think Open AI will release a GPT phone and the UX is built around your phone being your personal AI assistant.
When you pick it up it's like you are always on a Facetime call with your AI personal assistant. You can skin your AI personal assistant how they look .. to look like a celebrity to a deceased friend or relative whose always there to help & guide you through your day (get things done for you, your knowlegdebase, knows your life and sees how you are doing via Vision AI.. if you want it can be your friend and show care for you).
If Open AI doesn't do this then another AI company will in 2025. We need a new phone / personal device paradigm. The iPhone and Android are stale and boring in 2024!
I’m also bullish on this.
It looks really cool and revolutionary. And doable.
But it also looks horrible in how this will force us to lose what remaining control we had over our privacy :(
LLMs are really cool but we really need to make them work locally.
I think once people have the device as i described they won't care too much about privacy. They surely don't now as Android users and even a huge chunk of iPhone users won't either.
Apple waiting to create such a personal device as noted above for it to work locally will be the decline and possible death of the boring iPhone!
Google will rename their AI product at least 3 times, Google will also launch and shut down at least 5 messaging services.
Google AI will be better and more popular than the rest before they shut it down.
Perplexity, Phind, Grok, etc. are surprisingly good already as search engines.
Perplexity is better than Google for most of my common use-cases.
Debt chickens will come home to roost and once the bond interest/return death spiral starts it will be very difficult to break. Interest payments are already #3 in the national budget.
Interest paid on treasury bonds is a policy choice. There is no default risk, and the govt could easily implemnet ZIRP forever and run the economy without monetary policy entirely.
This 100%.
The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal.
Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.
>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.
And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?
I'm not American but would like to read more about this "debt storm", since your politics move world markets.
Can you provide some jumping-off points for the financially-literate?
Read The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton and watch the film Finding the Money to find out how this "debt storm" is neither debt, nor a storm.
"Broken Money" by Lyn Alden is a good engineering background. Then, for example, read one of many macro articles on fiscal dominance.
You do not have to read Lyn first, but without reading it on modern financial systems I personally would not understand most technical points in the current macro discussions.
* I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we're burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of money for providers.
* Some AI provider seriously looking at / funding RWVK?
* (More) Healthcare issues in the US, spilling into other countries. (or just the beginning of them anyway - effects will last much longer and life expectancy will decline)
* Some companies seriously looking at AI as another manager / decision maker. Quietly, not as a publicity stunt like it's done now.
* Google search market share falling further. Maybe 85%, down from the current 90%. (more of a wish than a prediction)
* US policies / ideas around cryptocurrency will be wildly incoherent, causing big swings every month
* Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist)
1. There will be a renaming of "social media" as people note that there is nothing social about being served endless ads, ragebait and distracting videos with no actual social interaction happening.
2. The "social media" giants will invest more in public affairs to improve their image as public resistance grows. Expect lots of research papers getting funded that sow doubt and fear about banning children from social media, following similar strategies to tobacco and oil industries.
3. Miraculously, Truth Social and X will be exempt from the same controls put on other platforms. Justified on the basis that they are official communication channels for the government.
Nothing substantial. When we look back, 2025 will be just a footnote :halo:
La Niña have high odds to last very few months. Global climate will continue its accelerated destabilization trend, with not so low odds of something impacting badly some first world countries. But just breaking even more records will do enough damage.
And that will put extra pressure on an already unstable global politics scenario. What will follow may tell us in which flavor of dystopia we are in, either denialism and escapism keeping business as usual, or "emergency measures" with some sectors grabbing even more power.
Nation adopts AI generated national anthem.
Self-driving truck cross country without human approval.
Extreme heat warps bridges in mid-west.
North Korea claims successful moon landing.
'Self-aware' AI chatbot sues it's creator.
AI incorrectly labels school children as criminals.
With anti-vaxers taking over the major health agencies, infectious diseases in children are going to explode.
Food (supply chain) and supplement safety will tank too.
[flagged]
Two minutes of research would have saved you the embarrassment of making that comment.
> Formaldehyde is essential in human metabolism and is required for the synthesis of DNA and amino acids (the building blocks of protein). Therefore, all humans have detectable quantities of natural formaldehyde in their circulation (about 2.5 ug of formaldehyde per ml of blood). Assuming an average weight of a 2-month-old of 5 kg and an average blood volume of 85 ml per kg, the total quantity of formaldehyde found in an infant's circulation would be about 1.1 mg, a value about 1,500 times more than the amount an infant would be exposed to in any individual vaccine.
https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety...
> While infants receive about 4.4 milligrams* of aluminum in the first six months of life from vaccines, they receive more than that in their diet. Breast-fed infants ingest about 7 milligrams, formula-fed infants ingest about 38 milligrams, and infants who are fed soy formula ingest almost 117 milligrams of aluminum during the first six months of life.
https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety...
Is there a difference between injected aluminium/formaldehyde and ingested aluminium/formaldehyde?
Look everyone, a brave antivaxer here to spread misinformation.
Blue Origin's New Glenn achieves successful booster recovery and payload to orbit delivery. Initially this is seen as huge win and they emerge as potential challengers to SpaceX, however manufacturing issues with BE-4 engines and questions about the design choice of New Glenn's massive 7m fairing (when satellites are converging towards smaller, more compact designs) will cause speculation for their product market fit.
Hopefully a nice year for more camping, get out there.
Yeah I love camping. And hiking.
This would be an interesting thread if you asked users to support their predictions with evidence or substance.
US enters recession in Q1 2025. There's no "soft landing". The correlation between federal interest rate cuts and recessions perfectly predicts this.
First cases of countries passing legislation specifically to protect human workers from being replaced by AI.
AI Investments will slow down. A bit out there but I will go on a limb :)
It's not just a bit out there; it's completely antithetical to what we're seeing in the data.
The data strongly suggests that AI is dealing with a bad case of a bubble, and it's not that far out there to suggest that the bubble will pop next year. That's not to say that some companies won't come out ahead—there were success stories that came out of the .com bubble too—but I'd give it no more then three years before the bubble bursts and the startup casualties stack up.
After 3+ years, the case for "AI startups" could then begin to weaken, but integration of AI in most startups should then remain central to their existence.
You have data for AI investments in 2025?
He means via trendline prediction.
Yes, on the basis of https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2024/ai-com...
Those are VC investments, nothing new to see here. They have all the incentives to ride the AI hype cycle, grow those investments and extract as much value from them as they can. Just as they've done before with other cycles as Big Data, Metaverse, Crypto/DeFi, etc.
Think about it, how many practically identical AI IDEs/editors are sponsored by YC alone? They're just hoping one of all those projects stick along enough to cash at least something in.
The big question is about trends in AI investment and usage from "old" corporations, SMBs and common people. Those will indicate if the world is really trusting the tech.
> The big question is about trends in AI investment and usage from "old" corporations, SMBs and common people.
These are only just getting started, from the large corps down. There is a decade of work ahead for them even if the AI tech stopped maturing right now.
I dunno, I work at a big old corp (finance/fintech industry) with a solid foundation in Data & Analytics, and still things are moving slowly. Not that much high of a hype in the C-level, maybe because sellers are not selling that well due to not really knowing how to extract value from (Gen)AI. Depending on the provider or consulting partner, sometimes they just don't know how to promote its benefits.
Confidence is slowly building up but still is very far from the hype levels I saw in the middle to late Big Data (2015-2017) era.
I finally get adopted by a nice family of sentient pizzas in 2025.
https://brynet.ca/wallofpizza.html
Back in 2019 I gave a conference talk in which I made four predictions about Web development in 2020 and 2025:
https://youtu.be/okrB3aJtUaw
I feel confident at least two of the predictions (about TypeScript and npm) are going to be true at the end of 2025. I feel less confident about the predictions about WebAssembly and compile-to-JS languages.
* We will find some ancient manuscript that only MRI and AI can read which conveniently realigns or adjusts the foundational beliefs of all abrahamic religions to the alien-god mythology
* Some sort of new power source will be teased which supercedes what we could gain from fusion
* JFK files are released and there is a lot of UFO information inside it
* The false alien disclosure op continues with lots of 'orbs' and drones and whatnot and a threat narrative emerging necessitating loss of liberty
* Russia and Ukraine mutually give up territory - Russia then turns on patriots and nationalists inside their border and NATO arms and fortifies Ukraine to the teeth for a push in the coming decade
* Some very unpleasant things are publicly released by the feds about SV40 and the vaccines
* Elon begins a fatwa against his business rivals and pushes for more technocratic solutions in the government like blockchains
* Very few immigrants are sent back, they just don't report on it and hope nobody notices
* Escalating rhetoric against Mexico and their cartels
Smart home category will heat up.
Can you please elaborate on your position? In what context?
* drone tech will heat up and find its "moment."
* Bitcoin will continue to increase in price and decrease in usability.
* Quantum will continue to improve and start to raise eyebrows in niche circles and paper headlines, leading to adoption in small parts of major tech companies.
* Markets will hit a record high by end of year.
* ADHD medications will also hit a record high.
* More people will opt out social media like they opt of out of "GMO" food and use it to virtue-signal.
* Tech hiring will continue to decrease and get tougher to find entry-level SWE jobs, leading to an uptick in other majors. Being an SWE will never be as cool again as it was in the 2010s.
* Is anyone still talking about climate change action goals?
* Starship will go orbital, Blue origin will go suborbital, Boeing will hit the ground.
* More laws regulating internet and social media use. Enforcement will be fuzzy and laughable at first but will become increasingly serious over time.
> ADHD medications will also hit a record high.
Do you mean that the current volume restrictions will be removed?
We move to the post truth economy.
Info and culture war stuff remains an attackers arena. The market place of ideas continues to become less efficient for the average Joe.
Wikipedia starts to collapse. We move from artisanal content moderation to industrial content moderation.
People who can afford it, pay for accuracy and verified information.
Centralization of trust sources begins again.
People who can’t afford it follow tribal leaders.
Polarization passes singularity levels.
AI performs worse than expected, but continues to be made more tractable.
This results in public push back against AI, because no one in the labor force wants the neo liberal era to return.
The DSA data reports on Social Media create at least 1 furore by q1.
Markets wait with bated breath for the signs of contraction, and any contraction results in contagion effects.
No one expects the trump tariffs.
It will be the year of the grift.
Musk has already indicated they want to neuter the regulators and implement a proper regulatory environment for crypto. But obviously in a laissez-faire way. So I would expect to see a lot of rug-pulling, insider trading etc.
I'd say there must be an [Ask HN: Predictions for 2026] at the end of 2025.
edit: wrong math.
A nuclear bomb will be detonated somewhere other than North Korea.
The first episode of Kanojo Okarishimasu season 4 will aired sometime around the first week of July.
It's weird that despite the AI improvements and actual benefits to developers, the current workflow like copilot is still implemented as a hit or miss. It should be the time already for the more limited but more precise AI workflow for developers in 2025.
Global population will reduce by 20+% due to H5N1 pandemic.
Many survivors will go Vegan.
Climate change will continue accelerating.
Just for context, are you vegan?
Cascadia fault line will pop in such a significant manner that the rules on fault lines will be rewritten.
Trump and cronies will absolutely wreck market stability. There will be actual shortages of basic products. But they will not be acknowledged as mistakes since the companies will be able to price gouge and maintain profits.
There will be at more attempts at more CEO and billionaire murders. They will use propaganda and media manipulation to muddle the grassroots approval of similar action, and change the narrative around Luigi.
Everything will get more expensive. More layoffs. Most people will have to work much harder for much less, but it'll be okay because number will go up.
Sadly, I have to say you are the most on point here.
Sora and similar video generating models will mark the beginning of YouTube like era.
- the video watermarking will be interesting here, i wonder how ai companies and socmed companies will tolerate and punish each other on these things.
- lots of new creators on this market too, particularly those with no studio setup but better creativity and imagination. there is still cost of entry of course, need $, but it's now less.
- i wonder how each audience will react to this, from children, to teens, to adults. now that content creators are desaturated, i think it's content consumers that will be saturated.
The cost issue is similar to the bandwidth issue faced by YouTube in its early days. It took a while for countries across the world to get high speed internet. As technology advances, the cost to generate video using these models would go down significantly and perhaps the quality of the generated video would also be better than what it is today.
* HN will stop hating and start loving crypto. Particularly smart contracts, stablecoins.
this one is interesting, few factors:
- governments and companies are now stacking on btc as a hedge against tradfi fiat currencies.
- people have better access to it now. centralized ones now have better regulations, and decentralized ones now have better liquidity.
- however, people are still prone to scams and pump and dumps
* Guatemala starts a major war over Mexican espionage in Petén
* Donald Trump is revealed to be the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto
* President Nelson (prophet of the LDS church) dies and is replaced by Dallin Oaks
* Dugin writes a sequel to The Fourth Political Theory, titled The n+1'th Political Theory
* New microscope finds the words "God was here" etched into every molecule in the universe
* People become at least 5% cuter as estrogen/testosterone ratio continues to tip in that direction
Political/General
Inflation creeps up with tariffs, but blue collar jobs and the economy 'boom.'
Deportation program and other things people worry about or get excited about gets tied up in courts and never happen.
Tech
Enshittification of all customer service accelerates as LLMs take over.
Lower wages for devs as too many seeking work put downward pressures.
Layoffs continue. Not because of AI, but because interest rates are still too high for a lot of companies.
Companies figure out how many engineers are out of work and getting desperate, and start laying off higher earners and replacing them with people who will do it for less.
I will start off with an uncommon one: Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting. These are being openly advertised and we will start seeing the first major push towards stopping some of them.
Some of the owners of the most uncommon Counterstrike skin gambling sites are making about $50 million a month.
A search for CSGO skin betting brings up a ton of sites, but I still have no idea what it is. Can you explain it? I don't really understand what is being bet on there. (Also, I'm slightly scared of the answer)
Good timing! If you have a spare hour that is. Coffeezilla just released two videos digging into the csgo skin casinos business:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q58dLWjRTBE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6jhjjVy5Ls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_gambling I assume
> Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting
Hopefully content creators will get persecuted for selling crypto pump and dump schemes towards kids.
It will be the year of open source AI due to it being only slightly harder to scale up which gives Meta the chance to meet or beat OpenAI.
XR improves a bit more but headsets will still be expensive.
Large movies and video games that cost above $200 million to make will flop around 75% or more.
Idk large corps are already getting comfy using OpenAI (Microsoft) I dont see them shifting cause they are all inept at doing things themselves. They need a lot of handholding which is why Microsoft is still alive.
2025 will be a year of chaos, uncertainty, and a lot of unhappiness across the world.
The US election gives Donald Trump a second act, with limited but real support of both houses and a lock on the Supreme Court.
He in turn has nominated quite the cast of characters.
Meanwhile governments around the world are teetering or falling. A global trade war is likely. Shooting wars like Ukraine and Israel? Who knows.
Mass shooting events are probably going to go up. Prices certainly will.
The release of hundreds of thousands of social media and “FAANG” developers back into regular society without their massive pay checks will continue to have positive effects on tech. The rest of the world will be able to afford to hire developers again :-)
AI will continue to be a vaudeville act, bright lights and pretty girls and loud noises won’t distract from the fact that generative AI is ultimately a dead end.
The new administration will do something incredibly dumb with cryptocurrency. Multiple cabinet members will be indicted before 2026 is here.
Finally, Trump will have influenced enough leaders to allow him to change his middle name from John to Johne, he will use this technicality to run for a third term as “New Trump”, will win and enshrine the middle name loophole into history.
- Valve releases a Steam client for ARM64 and makes native ports of all their games, other companies follow and ARM becomes a much more viable platform for both Windows and Linux
- People will continue to push back against genAI, every company will still be split on whether to use it in marketing, customer support, etc (no change)
- Trump administration slashes a lot of regulations that affect manufacturing as he tries to make the US less dependent on imports, it doesn't make a huge difference though
- Trump to meet Putin in person
- AI hype cycle reaches a peak, bubble bursts soon after
- Linux market share 6% by end of year
I think valve will finally release their 'deckard' headset which will BTFO the competition.
Get ready for your AI Smart Toaster.. On a serious note 2025 will be year of AI and Tools. Prepared to have AI on every damn thing that you visit digitally.
Another step towards autonomous driving. Short content becoming more popular.
I'm going to get older and gain weight.
Inflation will begin to rise again
The Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to raise rates again
The market will have a severe correction
Trump will blame everything on the Federal Reserve and will move to limit its power to control monetary policy or disassemble it all together.
AI used to develop new science along with efforts by governments to control access.
Trump delivers a live speech acknowledging the existence of non human technology on earth and a bit of what we know.
Society will continue regressing towards the mean of the last few thousand years. Less American exceptionalism, more serfdom and misery. Maybe polio will make a come back!
I think the defining story of 2025 will be AI agents getting very good with computer use, largely enabled by RL fine tuning.
Lets hope so; computer use with AI is currently absolutely terrible. It is something I expected to see far larger progress in this year but it's no better than last year.
Could you help understand the importance of RL finetuning? What can it accomplish that regular finetuning can't? What's a use case for it?
Tweaking models will slightly slow down and accelerate development of new hardware optimized for it. New storage, new transistors, new instruction sets, new optical AI chips. This thing for example is both fast and crude https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ch...
* AI and LLMs will continue to improve. AI will create a new programming language that will take the world by storm
* Market share for solar continues to increase
* A market crash occurs in the US and a government bailout is instituted.
* The US creates a pretext to go to war with Iran and is defeated.
The decline continues but steeper.
Market instability
New LLama will be released.
Efforts of the team will be appreciated publicly.
It will remain the most impactful open model.
Given the hype in AI and crypto, I unfortunately predict that there will be widespread layoffs in 2025.
Usually I had a habit of getting my predictions on point, now I hope this prediction is wrong since we all know most predictions in this thread will be wrong; just like last year.
This is actually relieving. People are very pessimistic itt (lol see the top comment for the past year https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 ).
I find this all way too optimistic. Cannot imagine any of this year current top comment will happen with grifters at the top of the biggest economy, and with the speed of AI taking out jobs (which people deny here, I guess because big traditional companies are lagging behind); I think in 2025 this will become very visible.
We get a GPT Phone (an AI phone) that's UX is all built around your phone becoming your personal AI assistant.
When you pick up the phone you basically see your personal AI assistant like they are always on Facetime waiting at your beckon call. You could skin your AI personal assistant to be a celebrity or a deceased friend or relative who is always there to guide you through your day. It has vision AI and can see when your happy or sad and respond to how you look if you have that setting on. It does everything for you via text, voice or hand gestures.
The iPhone and Android seem stale (released in 2007 & 2008) and boring in 2024 after using chatGPT as my personal knowledge chatBot for awhile.
Mankind might finally stop using the word THE before her name: Earth
Only two market related predictions:
- Musk will leave the Trump team before the end of the year, this will cause Tesla to crash, and that will cause the whole market to crash. It should time well with the delayed crash after interest rate stabilization that has repeated multiple times in the past.
- Gamestop MOASS will not happen in 2025.
Project 2025 gets implemented to its fullest extent .... all 922 pages of it. Every crashes soon after.
A significant portion of the US population will lose nearly everything. Their investments will collapse, their benefits will be stripped away, and they will fall victim to countless scams, or be outright robbed. Much of this will happen through official channels, as restrictions and oversight on corporations and government organizations are reduced or eliminated entirely.
Or because of the ageing population they will have a life threatening incident. Which Medicare will fail to cover due to its budget being cut and private health insurance companies refusing to pay for procedures the Doctor orders.
And so I would expect to see medical bankruptcy being far more common.
I agree with the rest, but not necessarily investments collapsing. It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business, gutting consumer and environmental protections.
Assuming tarrifs happen, there will be price hikes. And if there are general price hikes it's easy (and sometimes necessary) to hike your own prices even if you're not directly affected. This will improve profits (at least in the short term).
So, I expect the stock market to do very well. The rich will get richer. The middle class will be pushed down.
But yeah, the 95% are about to get what they voted for.
Venture Capital as an asset class completely collapses and we seek grassroots alternatives to funding innovation, without the compromise to capital.
Layoffs get peaked.
AI needs for efficiency will push computing outside of silicon.
More analog computing metaphors everywhere.
UX / UI might evaporate significantly
An interesting prediction is one that is predictive of something impactful and correctly predicts something which is currently significantly under weighted by others.
Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to fiscal crisis if we cannot get spending under control.
My prediction is that in 2025 Trump brings to implement more tariffs on China and these tariffs are met with relation by China. Europe tries to remain somewhat neutral, but under threat of tariffs themselves ultimately sides with the US against China resulting in retaliatory tariffs from China on Europe.
Inflation starts rising globally again, resulting in increased borrowing costs which triggers an economic crisis in Europe given recessionary growth and debt servicing costs spiking, ultimately forcing governments to make significant cuts in spending.
The social unrest this results in ultimately further amplifies the populist far-right in Europe, and for this reason 2025 will be looked back at as the year which triggered a meaningful change in the post-war political consensus.
I might be wrong. As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Things seem to be really breaking down on multiple fronts and it's not clear to me how things could just go back to normality at this point. Given where we are right now – especially now with the election of Trump – 2025 seems like the year something might finally give.
I agree with you (living in europe as well); I don't think it will happen in 2025; probably trump year 1 will go fine and europe will just go further down as it is. But somewhere in this trump term, all dominos will fall: US debt storm, normal people in the biggest economy no longer being able to live of their wages, the rich owning all, followed by a massive recession; this will be the final straw for a weakened europe. I am not entirely sure how to arm for this, but I will have to find out.
Stocks keep going up
Trump inaugurated without any incident
2 more mass shootings
Advances in LLM and other Ai
US economy keeps growing and outperforming rest of world.
"2 more mass shootings"? There were 488 in the US in 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41488081
Only 2? try 500
TikTok ban becomes a nothingburger.
God, this thread is bleak. Not undeservedly, but...woof.
Nobody's mentioned antibiotic resistant bacteria much that I saw, so that'll probably keep being more and more of an issue.
Everyone predicted a second Great Depression during Covid that lined up with 1929... Well, Trump and his friends might drive us toward that in 2029, or earlier.
AI peaks and we can't eke out much more real benefit from it, but there's too much investment in it for businesses to admit it, so the grifters spin into high gear.
Elon Musk and the other billionaires continues to get richer.
The poor continue to get poorer.
Trump pulls the US out of every socially-good but vaguely anti-business agreement.
Russia finally pulls out of Ukraine but keeps the bits it "liberated".
China declares itself to be the biggest and most stable global superpower as America and Russia have spun off the deep end.
I have to replace my bike tires.
> God, this thread is bleak. [...] I have to replace my bike tires.
Your bike tires have contributed to the microplastic crisis. :-)
Not if I burn them! Then they contribute to the air quality issue! Time to go cry in the corner!
and it's now inside our testicles ;)
'you got bike tire in my testicals!'
isn't quite as catchy as the old Reese's cup 'you got chocolate in my peanut butter' version but somehow sums up 2024.
#1 Something has to happen of the drones that are over various US military sites. People seem to want to bury their head in the sand, not acknowledging China owns substantial "farmland" in the US, especially near military sites, that could in theory be home to any number of drone bases. If China is preparing for war, it could risk a global catastrophe.
#2 The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to come to a peaceful end. Putin seems to have mostly lost his appetite for war, and we know that Trump will not want to fund Ukraine any more. Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some conquered territory.
#3 With regard to non-CoT LLMs, gpt-4o becomes worse on all relevant benchmarks compared to the leading open source models. Currently, as I understand, it still wins on some benchmarks.
#4 Tiktok, if not all social media, gets banned for those under 18 on the grounds of foreign influence, although ID requirements get struck down, and kids can misrepresent their age.
"Hybrid WW3" continues. Russia advances most everywhere in the proxy politics space (perhaps paradoxically except Syria.)
Western economies continue on their troll-induced march to self-implosion. The defamation attacks on their Comparative Advantage industries intensify, particularly:
- Non-Musk Big Tech / AI
- Non-Musk aerospace (=> Boeing)
- Wall Street / non-crypto finance
- Non-Musk automotive
- Hollywood
Immigration is halted or reversed in most Western countries, halving long-term GDP growth.
Hard to say whether the H5N1 flu will turn into another pandemic.
How do you mention geopolitics and a potential WW3 without mentioning the Middle East and Israel?
Gaza was heartbreaking, but the story was amplified in the US to suppress progressive turnout. I think I saw the same fingerprints on both sides.
Either way, the Battle of Oil is mostly over. The ME is increasingly irrelevant. Arab leaders predicted this long ago [1].
[1] https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/978019...
Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.
You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
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* AI will fizzle out.
* We will finally do something about climate change.
* The world will finally become sane again.
Just kidding! Lol
Cold fusion turns out to part of the physics repressed since the 1950s, and progress begins the path to give everyone their own personal megawatt of clean energy.
Disclosure actually happens, and it turns out we're not alone in the Universe.
BitGrid turns out to be the most efficient way to bring Petaflops to the masses, it's then disappeared as "born secret" and you never hear of it again.
Someone figures out an effective algorithm for simulating a quantum computer in real time at any scale, again "Born Secret" and it disappears.
H1N5 (Bird flu?) takes hold in the human population, millions die.